Coffee prices are climbing once more, and the weather in Brazil is to blame.
The cost of Arabica coffee — the kind used by big chains like Starbucks — jumped 2.6% on Friday, reaching $3.88 per pound in New York. That’s because dry weather is threatening Brazil’s coffee crop during a key stage of its development. Brazil is the world’s largest coffee producer, so any issues there tend to impact global prices.
Robusta coffee prices also went up on the London market.
Brazilian weather expert Nadiara Pereira from Climatempo warned that the heat and lack of rain are expected to get worse in coffee-growing areas. This could put serious stress on the coffee plants.
Rabobank analyst Oran van Dorrt said the main reasons for the price hike are ongoing dry conditions and low stockpiles in warehouses. However, he added that if the expected rains finally come, prices could start to drop again.
At the same time, Laleska Moda from Hedgepoint pointed out that steady rainfall is absolutely crucial to ensure a good harvest for the 2026–2027 seasons. She also mentioned that there’s a strong chance of a La Niña event later this year — something that often brings drought to South America and heavy rains to Asia.
On a related note, cocoa prices have hit a 10-year low. Experts believe the drop might boost sales and increase supply on the market.